An intensely warm winter and spring are melting climate records across Alaska, reports NOAA in the post 'Arctic set for record-breaking melt'. The January-April 2016 period was 11.4°F (6.4°C) warmer than the 20th century average, reports NOAA. The NOAA image below further illustrates the situation.
The sea ice is melting rapidly. Warm water from the Mackenzie River contributes to dramatic melting in the Beaufort Sea, as illustrated by the image below, showing that on May 20, 2016, the Arctic Ocean was 5°F (2.8°C) warmer than in 1981-2011 at the delta of the Mackenzie River.
The image below shows that on May 20, 2016, sea ice extent was 10.99 million square km, compared to the 12.05 million square km extent of the sea ice in May 20, 2012, as measured by JAXA.
Sea ice reached a record minimum extent of 3.18 million square km on September 15, 2012, and chances are that the sea ice will be largely gone by September 2016.
The year 2016 is an El Niño year and insolation during the coming months of June and July is higher in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth. Higher temperatures come with increased danger of wildfires. Greenhouse gases are at record high levels: in April and may, CO2 was about 408 ppm, with hourly peaks as high as 411 ppm (on May 11, 2016). Methane levels are high and rising, especially over the Arctic. Smoke and methane are speeding up sea ice melting, as illustrated by the image below showing smoke from wildfires in Canada extending over the Beaufort Sea (main image), in addition to high methane levels that are present over the Beaufort Sea (inset).
Ocean heat is also very high and rising. Oceans on the Northern Hemisphere were 0.93°C (or 1.7°F) warmer in the most recent 12-months period (May 2015 through April 2016) than the 20th century average.
The image below shows sea ice extent as measured by the NSIDC, confirming that melting of the sea ice in 2016 is way ahead on previous years.
Here's an animation comparing sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic between May 25, 2015, and May 25, 2016.
Arctic sea ice extent was 10.7 million km2 on May 25, 2016, 1.1 million km2 less than it was on May 25, 2012, as the update below shows.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.
Since early April, 2016, there have been problems with the sensor on the F-17 satellite that provided the data for many Arctic sea ice images. On April 12, NSIDC issued a notice that it had suspended the provision of sea ice updates. On May 6, NSIDC announced that it had completed the shift to another satellite. The red dotted line in the image below shows data from the F-18 satellite from April 1 to May 15, 2016.
The JAXA site also provides sea ice extent images, obtaining data from a Japanese satellite. They show that Arctic sea ice extent on May 15, 2016 was 11,262,361 square km, 1.11 million square km less than it was on May 15, 2012.
The Cryosphere Today is still using data from the F17 satellite, showing some weird spikes. Albert Kallio has taken a recent image and removed faulty spikes, resulting in the image below showing sea ice area up to May 3, 2016.
[ yellow line is 2016, red line is 2015 ]
Importantly, above image confirms that Arctic sea ice in 2016 has indeed been very low, if not at its lowest for the time of the year. Especially since April 2016, sea ice has fallen far below anything we've seen in earlier years. Below, Albert elaborates on comparing data.
REPAIRED USA (F-17) SATELLITE DATA SHOWS RECORD SMALL SEA ICE AREA IN MAY 2016 AGREEING JAPANESE (JAXA) DATA
A corrected Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) data set on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite that provides passive microwave brightness temperatures (and derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice products) has been corrected here for the system instrumentation error. This agrees with the Japanese JAXA curve, and has been accomplished by removal of the uncharacteristic upward 'ice growth' spikes by linear intrapolation of the corrupt data points. This reinforces the JAXA data that shows the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area is seasonally at new record low which has continued in May 2016.
Smoothened F-17 curve agrees with the Japanese JAXA satellite curve. The reconciliation of the two has been accomplished by removal of the uncharacteristic upward spikes by linear intrapolation of the corrupt days' data points which incorrectly showed immense sea ice area growth in the middle of spring melt season. This reinforces the JAXA data that shows the sea ice area is seasonally at record lows. Therefore, media who are citing recent F-17 satellite sea ice area figures are intentionally distorting the facts with their claims of the Northern Hemisphere having a record sea ice area for this time of season - whereas in reality - the exact opposite has been happening.
Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape and looks set to deteriorate even further, for a number of reasons.
The year 2016 is an El Niño year, as illustrated by the 51.1°C (124.1 °F) forecast for May 22, 2016, over the Indus Valley in Pakistan (see image right).
Insolation during the months June and July is higher in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth. Greenhouse gases are at record high levels: CO2 was 408.2 ppm on May 12, 2016, and methane levels are high and rising, especially over the Arctic.
Ocean heat is also very high and rising. The image below shows that oceans on the Northern Hemisphere were 0.93°C (or 1.7°F) warmer in the most recent 12-months period (May 2015 through April 2016) than the 20th century average.
The situation is further illustrated by the image below, using the NOAA data with a trendline added that points at a rise of 3°C (5.4°F) before the year 2040.
Chances are that Arctic sea ice will be largely gone by September 2016. As the ice declines, ever more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean. This is one out of numerous feedbacks that are hitting the Arctic. The danger is that, as these feedbacks start to kick in more, heat will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and trigger methane to be released in huge quantities from the Arctic Ocean seabed.
Recently, an abrupt methane release from the Arctic Ocean seafloor did enter the atmosphere over the East Siberian Sea, showing up with levels as high as 2578 ppb (at 586 mb on May 15, 2016, pm, see image below). Such abrupt releases are indications that methane hydrates are destabilizing and are warnings that climate catastrophe is waiting to happen.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Arctic sea ice extent is very low, much lower than it was in other years at this time of year. On May 11, 2016, Arctic sea ice extent was 12.328 million square km, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), while JAXA's figure for extent on May 11, 2016, was only 11.57 million square km.
JAXA figures show that Arctic sea ice extent on May 9, 2016, was 11.68 million square km, more than 18 days ahead on 2012 and 1.1 million square km smaller than it was on May 9, 2012.
The image on the right compares the Beaufort Sea and the northern part of Alaska between May 9, 2012 and May 9, 2016. As the image illustrates, there now is a lot less ice and snow cover than there was on 2012.
The situation looks set to deteriorate further over the coming months. The image below shows temperature forecast to reach anomalies as high as 5.19°C or 9.34°F for the Arctic as a whole (forecast for May 19, 2016, 0300 UTC), with temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale forecast for Alaska and eastern Siberia.
These temperature anomalies go hand in hand with a very wavy jet stream, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing loops extending all the way over the Arctic Ocean (in particular over the Beaufort Sea), taking along warm air in their path.
At the same time, the jet stream can extend far south at other places, making that cold air is moving south, out of the Arctic.
The result is a rapidly warming Arctic, which in turn makes the jet stream even more wavier, as one out of numerous feedbacks that are all hitting the Arctic at the same time.
The image below compares sea ice thickness between May 13, 2012, and May 13, 2016.
The image on the right shows that sea surface temperatures near Svalbard were as high as 55°F (12.8°C) on May 11, 2016, an anomaly of 21.2°F (11.8°C) from 1981-2011. In other words, the temperature of the sea surface was 1°C in that spot from 1981 to 2011, and now this spot is 11.8°C warmer.
The image below compares sea surface temperature anomalies from 1961-1990 between May 12, 2015, and May 12, 2016.
Sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean are higher than they used to be, in particular in the Bering Strait, the Beaufort Sea, in Baffin Bay and the Kara Sea.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
In summary, Arctic sea ice is in a very bad shape, while ocean heat is very high and rising. Greenhouse gas levels are at record high levels, as discussed in an earlier post and as further illustrated by the image below.
The image below shows that, over the past 365 days, warming over the Arctic have been much stronger than over the rest of the world. Air temperature anomalies of more than 2.5°C (4.5°F) show up over most of the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, as discussed above, high temperatures are forecast to hit the Arctic over the next week.
From November 2015 to April 2016, global temperatures over land and oceans were 1.48°C (or 2.664°F) higher than in 1890-1910 (left map of the image below). On land, it was 1.99°C (or 3.582°F) warmer (right map of the image below).
Since some 0.3°C (0.54°F) greenhouse warming had already taken place by the year 1900, warming was well above the 1.5°C (or 2.7°F) guardrail the Paris Agreement had pledged wouldn't be crossed.
Given the above, chances are that the sea ice will be largely gone by September 2016.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.
The weather is getting more and more extreme. On April 23, 2016, temperatures in India were as high as 47.7°C or 117.9°F. At the same time, temperatures in California were as low as -12.6°C or 9.2°F, while temperatures in Greenland were as high as 3.6°C or 38.6°F. Meanwhile, Antarctica was as cold as -60°C or -76°F.
The situation in India is most worrying. Temperatures are very high in many locations. India has been experiencing heatwave conditions for some time now, as reported in this and in this earlier posts.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
More extreme weather goes hand in hand with changes that are taking place to the jet stream, as also discussed in earlier posts (see further below).
As the Arctic warms up more rapidly than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole decreases, which in turn weakens the speed at which the north polar jet stream circumnavigates the globe. This is illustrated by the wavy patterns of the north polar jet stream in the image on the right.
The outlook for the next week shows the north polar jet stream move higher over the arctic, and to eventually disintegrate altogether, while merging with the subtropical jet stream over the Pacific Ocean.
The video below shows how a very wavy jet stream is projected to disintegrate over the Arctic Ocean over the coming week.
This makes it easier for warm air to move into the Arctic and for cold air to move out of the Arctic, in turn further decreasing the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop: "It's like leaving the freezer door open."
Temperature forecasts for the Arctic Ocean are high, with anomalies projected to be above 4°C for the Arctic over the coming week.
The image on the right shows one such forecast, projecting a temperature anomaly of 5.31°C or 9.56°F for the Arctic on April 27, 2016, 1500 UTC, while an earlier forecast projected a 5.34°C or 9.61°F anomaly (hat tip to Mark Williams).
The danger is that the combined impact of high air temperatures and ocean heat will cause rapid demise of Arctic sea ice over the next few months.
On April 22, 2016, the sea surface was as much as 11.3°C or 20.3°F warmer than 1981-2011 (at the location off the coast of North America marked by the green circle).
High ocean heat is further accelerating Arctic sea ice demise, as the Gulf Stream keeps carrying ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean. The image below, created with an image from the JAXA site, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was well under 13 million km2 on April 19, 2016, and about 1 million km2 less than the extent in the year 2012 around this time of year.
Demise of the sea ice will cause even more rapid warming of the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that more heat will penetrate sediments that contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas, threatening to trigger huge methane releases and cause runaway warming.
Methane levels are increasing strongly. This may not be as noticeable when taking samples from ground stations, but the rise is dramatic at higher altitudes, as also discussed earlier in this post and in this post.
Methane levels in ppb (parts per billion, at bottom of image)
The conversion table below shows the altitude equivalents in feet, m and mb.
57016 feet
44690 feet
36850 feet
30570 feet
25544 feet
19820 feet
14385 feet
8368 feet
1916 feet
17378 m
13621 m
11232 m
9318 m
7786 m
6041 m
4384 m
2551 m
584 m
74 mb
147 mb
218 mb
293 mb
367 mb
469 mb
586 mb
742 mb
945 mb
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
The Arctic is prone to suffer from three kinds of warming. Firstly, the Arctic is hit particularly hard by emissions, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.
Secondly, warming in the Arctic is accelerating due to feedbacks, as discussed on the feedbacks page. Many such feedbacks are related to decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic, which is in turn made worse by emissions such as soot.
Thirdly, the most dangerous feedback is release of methane from the Arctic Ocean seafloor, due to hydrates getting destabilized as heat reaches sediments.
Last year, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent on February 25, 2015. This year, there was a lot less sea ice in the Arctic on February 25 than there was last year, as illustrated by above image. The difference is about 300,000 square km, more than the size of the United Kingdom.
The image below shows that global sea ice on February 22, 2016, was only 14.22086 million square km in area. It hasn't been that low since satellite records started to measure the sea ice.
A number of feedbacks are associated with the decline of sea ice, such as more sunlight being absorbed by the water, instead of being reflected back into space as it was previously. Furthermore, three kinds of warming are active in the Arctic, as depicted by the image below.
Sea ice can reflect as much as 90% of the sunlight back into space. Once the ice has melted away, however, the water of the ocean reflects only 6% of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest. This is depicted in above image as feedback #1.
As Professor Peter Wadhams once calculated, warming due to Arctic snow and ice loss could more than double the net warming now caused by all emissions by all people of the world.
Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat. When ice is melting, each gram of ice will take 334 Joule of heat to change into water, while the temperature remains at 0° Celsius or 32° Fahrenheit.
Once all ice has turned into water, all further heat goes into heating up the water. To raise the temperature of one gram of water by one degree Celsius then takes only 4.18 Joule of heat. In other words, melting of the ice absorbs 8 times as much heat as it takes to warm up the same mass of water from zero to 10°C. This is depicted in above image as feedback #14.
Above video, created by Stuart Trupp, shows how added heat at first (A) goes mainly into warming up water that contains ice cubes. From about 38 seconds into the movie, all heat starts going into the transformation of the ice cubes into water, while the temperature of the water doesn't rise (B). More than a minute later, as the ice cubes have melted (C), the temperature of the water starts rising rapidly again.
Methane is a further feedback, depicted as feedback #2 on the image further above. As the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps getting warmer, the danger increases that heat will reach the seafloor where it can trigger release of huge amounts of methane, in an additional feedback loop that will make warming in the Arctic accelerate and escalate into runaway warming.
Sediments underneath the Arctic Ocean hold vast amounts of methane. Just one part of the Arctic Ocean alone, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS, see map below), holds up to 1700 Gt of methane. A sudden release of less than 3% of this amount could add 50 Gt of methane to the atmosphere, and experts have warned for many years that they consider such an amount to be ready for release at any time.
Above image gives a simplified picture of the threat, showing that of a total methane burden in the atmosphere of 5 Gt (it is meanwhile higher), 3 Gt that has been added since the 1750s, and this addition is responsible for almost half of all antropogenic global warming. The amount of carbon stored in hydrates globally was in 1992 estimated to be 10,000 Gt (USGS), while a more recent estimate gives a figure of 63,400 Gt (Klauda & Sandler, 2005). Once more, the scary conclusion is that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) alone holds up to 1700 Gt of methane in the form of methane hydrates and free gas contained in sediments, of which 50 Gt is ready for abrupt release at any time.
The warning signs keep getting stronger. Following a peak methane reading of 3096 ppb on February 20, 2016, a reading of 3010 ppb was recorded in the morning of February 25, 2016, at 586 mb (see image below).
Again, this very high level was likely caused by methane originating from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, at a location on the Gakkel Ridge just outside the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), as discussed in the earlier post. This conclusion is supported by the methane levels at various altitudes over the ESAS, as recorded by both the MetOp-1 and MetOp-2 satellites in the afternoon, as illustrated by the combination image below showing methane levels at 469 mb.
The situation is dire a calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Last year, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent on February 25, 2015. This year, there's a lot less sea ice in the... Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, February 26, 2016
Arctic sea ice area on January 28, 2016, was only 12.17902 million square km. At this time of year, sea ice area hasn't been as low as this for at least since satellite records started in 1979, as illustrated by the image below.
The sea ice is in a bad shape due to very high temperatures. A forecast for January 30, 2016, shows surface temperatures over the Arctic that are 2.7°C (4.86°F) warmer than they were in 1979-2000. The image below further illustrates this, showing temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C (36°F) above 1979-2000, in many places in the Arctic.
At this time of year, there is very little sunshine in the Arctic. Therefore, these anomalies are caused by sea water that is warmer than it used to be. The image below shows that on January 24, 2016, sea surface temperature was 12.3°C (54.2°F) at a location near Svalbard marked by the green circle, a 10.4°C (18.7°F) anomaly.
Such anomalies are in turned caused by water that is much warmer than it used to be, and that is being carried by the Gulf Stream all the way into the Arctic Ocean.
Water much warmer off the North American coast
The water off the coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be due to emissions that extend from North America over the Atlantic Ocean due to the Coriolis effect. The image below, from an earlier post, shows carbon dioxide levels as high as 511 ppm over New York on November 5, 2015, and as high as 500 ppm over the water off the coast of coast of New Jersey on November 2, 2015.
As discussed at an earlier post, also relevant are other emissions such as carbon monoxide that depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized. Below is an update on carbon monoxide levels.
These emissions heat up the Gulf Stream and make that ever warmer water is carried underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean, while little heat transfer occurs from ocean to atmosphere, due to the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic.
Arctic sea ice in uncharted territory
Update 1: For the time of the year, Arctic sea ice is now at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 1, 2016, when area was 12.27298 million square km.
Update 2: For the time of the year, Arctic sea ice remains at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 4, 2016, when area was 12.30656 million square km.
[ click on image to enlarge ]
Comprehensive and effective action is needed
This situation spells bad news for what will happen later in 2016, also given the current El Niño. Less sea ice means that less sunlight is reflected back into space, resulting in more heat being absorbed by the Arctic Ocean.
As more heat reaches the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, the risk increases that heat will penetrate and destabilize sediments containing methane hydrates. Methane escaping from hydrates could strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic, causing further melting of the sea ice, in a spiral of warming that could escalate into runaway warming.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.
Arctic sea ice area on January 28, 2016, was only 12.17902 million square km. At this time of year, sea ice area hasn't... Posted by Sam Carana on Sunday, January 31, 2016
Arctic sea ice extent on January 4, 2016, was at a record low for the time of the year, as illustrated by the image below.
Arctic sea ice will typically reach its maximum extent in March. In 2015, sea ice extent was very low in March (see blue line in above image), and the outlook for this year is even more grim, as oceans get warmer and El Niño is still gaining in strength.
Below is a comparison of sea ice thickness (in m) on January 4th for the years 2012, 2015 and 2016.
Below is an update showing Arctic sea ice extent as on January 6, 2016, at the bottom left corner, marked with the red dot.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.
Arctic sea ice extent on January 4, 2016, was at a record low for the time of the year. Arctic Sea Ice At Record Lowhttp://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/01/arctic-sea-ice-at-record-low.html Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, January 5, 2016
