Differences in baseline (reference period) can result in dramatic differences in temperature rise. The U.K. Met Office HadCRUT4 dataset typically presents temperature anomalies relative to a 1961-1990 baseline. NASA typically uses a 1951-1980 baseline, but the NASA website allows for different baselines to be selected. When selecting a 1961-1990 baseline, temperatures over the past half year were 1.05°C (1.89°F) higher than this baseline, as shown by the NASA map in the left panel of the image below. As the map in the right panel of the image below shows, when compared to 1890-1910, temperatures have risen by 1.48°C (or 2.664°F).
This gives an idea of how much temperatures have risen since the year 1900, with a rise for both February and March 2016 showing up that was more than 1.5°C, as also illustrated by the image below. The trend further points at temperature anomalies that will be more than 1.5°C within a decade and more than 2°C soon thereafter.
Historical Temperatures
To calculate by how much warming humans have caused since pre-industrial times, we need to go back further than 1900. The graph below shows that carbon dioxide concentrations have gone up and down between roughly 180 ppm and 280 ppm over the past 800,000 years and did recently reach a peak of 411 ppm (peak hourly average on May 11, 2016).
The graph below, from an earlier post, shows how in the past, over the past 420,000 years, temperatures (and levels of CO2 and CH4) have gone up and down by some 10°C, in line with the Milankovitch cycles.
Historically, carbon dioxide rises of 100 ppm have gone hand in hand with temperature rises of some 10°C. The recent rise in carbon dioxide concentrations is a 131 ppm rise (from some 280 ppm to 411 ppm). The rise in methane concentrations is even steeper. Could we therefore expect a temperature rise of more than 10°C to happen, and if so how soon could this eventuate? As described below, warming caused by humans could result in a temperature rise of more than 10°C (18°F) within a decade.
The graph underneath, based on work by Marcott et al., focuses on this blue part of the graph, while using a 1961-1990 baseline. Temperatures reached a peak some 7000 years ago, and then came down to reach a low a few hundred years ago.
The peak and the bottom temperatures (highlighted in red on image) over the period suggest a fall of more than 0.7°C.
A few hundred years ago, temperatures were falling and they would have kept falling, in line with the Milankovitch cycles, had there been no warming caused by humans.
From that bottom point, temperatures first rose by about 0.4°C, overwhelming the downward trend that would otherwise have taken temperatures down further, and then there was an additional rise of at least 1.05°C, when using a baseline of 1961-1990. That may suggest that humans have caused a total of 1.45°C warming.
Humans have caused even more warming
The situation looks to be even worse than what the above figures may suggest. Indeed, the bottom low point in the Marcott graph would have been even lower had there been no warming by humans.
From that bottom point, temperatures first rose by about 0.4°C, overwhelming the downward trend that would otherwise have taken temperatures down further, and then there was an additional rise of at least 1.05°C, when using a baseline of 1961-1990. That may suggest that humans have caused a total of 1.45°C warming.
Humans have caused even more warming
The situation looks to be even worse than what the above figures may suggest. Indeed, the bottom low point in the Marcott graph would have been even lower had there been no warming by humans.
Temperatures before 1900 were already higher than what they would have been had humans caused no warming. The fact that humans did cause substantial warming between 1800 and 1900 is illustrated by the graph below, from a recent post by Michael Mann, who adds that some 0.3°C greenhouse warming had already taken place between the year 1800 and the year 1900.
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| Some 0.3C greenhouse warming had already taken place by 1900, and some 0.2C warming by 1870 |
Another example of warming caused by humans before 1800 is presented in research by Dull et al., which suggests that burning of Neotropical forests increased steadily in the Americas, peaking at a time when Europeans arrived in the late fifteenth century. By 1650, some 95% of the indigenous population had perished. Regrowth of forests led to carbon sequestration of some 2 to 5 Pg C, thereby contributing to a fall in atmospheric carbon dioxide recorded in Antarctic ice cores from about 1500 through 1750.
Paris Agreement
NASA data suggest that it was 1.48°C (or 2.664°F) warmer than in 1890-1910 for the period from November 2015 to April 2016. Note again that this 1890-1910 baseline is much later than pre-industrial times. The Paris Agreement had pledged to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, it was 1.99°C (or 3.582°F) warmer (right map of the image below).
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| [ Temperature anomalies for the period from November 2015 to April 2016, see also comments ] |
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| February 2016 was 1.67°C (3°F) warmer than 1890-1910 |
When looking at a single month, February 2016 was 1.67°C (3°F) warmer than 1890-1910 (see image right). When adding a mere 0.34°C to account for warming before 1900, total warming in February 2016 did exceed 2°C. Looking at it that way, the guardrails set in Paris in December 2015 were already crossed in February 2016.
Situation
So, what is the situation? On the one hand, there's the current observed temperature rise (∆O). This rise is typically calculated as the difference between the current temperature and the temperature at a given baseline.
However, this ∆O does not reflect the full impact of human emissions. Temperatures would have been lower had there been no emissions by humans. The full warming impact due to people's emissions therefore is ∆E. This ∆E is higher than the often-used observed rise, since the baseline would have been lower without warming caused by humans.
At the same time, part of global warming caused by people is currently masked due the aerosol emissions (∆A). Such aerosol emissions result from mainly burning of fossil fuel and biomass. There's no doubt that such emissions should be reduced, but the fact remains that the current temperature rise may increase substantially, say, by half when the masking effect disappears.
Thus, the full (unmasked) warming caused by humans is the sum of these two, i.e. ∆E + ∆A, and the sum could be as high as 3°C or even more than 5°C.
In addition, there is a future temperature rise that's already baked into the cake (∆F). Some feedbacks are not yet very noticeable, since some changes take time to become more manifest, such as melting of sea ice and non-linear changes due to feedbacks that are only now starting to kick in. Furthermore, the full effect of CO2 emissions reaches its peak only a decade after emission, while even with the best efforts, humans are likely to still be causing additional emissions over the coming decade. All such factors could jointly result in a temperature rise greater than ∆E + ∆A together, i.e. ∆F could alone cause a temperature rise of more than 5°C within a decade.
In summary, total warming caused by humans (∆E + ∆A + ∆F) could be more than 10°C (18°F) within one decade, assuming that no geoengineering will take place within a decade.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
- Methane Erupting From East Siberian Arctic Shelf
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/11/methane-erupting-from-east-siberian-arctic-shelf.html
- Jos Hagelaars' graph, created with graphs by Shakun et al., Marcott et al. and more, is at:
https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/the-two-epochs-of-marcott/
- Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation, by Shakun et al. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html
- A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, by Marcott et al.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198
- The Columbian Encounter and the Little Ice Age: Abrupt Land Use Change, Fire, and Greenhouse Forcing, by Dull et al., in:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/columbus-arrival-linked-carbon-dioxide-drop
- Arctic Climate Records Melting
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/arctic-climate-records-melting.html
- 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility, Ulf Büntgen et al. (2011)
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/331/6017/578
- Paris Agreement
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/paris-agreement.html
http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/6911.php?priref=600008831
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf
- February Temperature
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/03/february-temperature.html
- Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
- Paris Agreement
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/paris-agreement.html
http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/6911.php?priref=600008831
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf
- February Temperature
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/03/february-temperature.html
- Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
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